An interesting thing happened during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

No—not that thing. Probably not the second or third thing you’re thinking of either. And yes, a lot happened.

But for Americans living abroad, something genuinely notable occurred: for the first time in years, both major presidential campaigns spoke directly to expat voters—and specifically about issues that matter to us.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign published a white paper; former President Donald Trump posted a video. Different formats, different styles—but both referenced two long-standing pain points for Americans overseas: taxation and access to banking.

That attention wasn’t coming out of nowhere. According to estimates from American Citizens Abroad (AARO), up to 5.5 million Americans now live outside the United States—a population larger than each of the 29 smallest U.S. states in the 2020 Census. In a close election, that suddenly looks like a meaningful bloc of voters.

So what happens now that Donald Trump is the President? Will anything actually change? At least over the past year, the answer is: nothing yet. But granted: a lot happened in 2025, and the President's focus may have been somewhat elsewhere.

As an expat CPA who’s lived overseas since 2015 and watches policy closely, I am cautiously optimistic—but grounded in reality. One tangible development worth watching is a legislative proposal currently in draft form in Congress: the Residence-Based Taxation for Americans Abroad Act (H.R. 10468), introduced on December 18, 2024 by Congressman Darin LaHood (R-IL).

This bill would represent a significant shift from the longstanding U.S. approach of citizenship-based taxation. If enacted, it would let qualifying Americans living abroad elect to be taxed based on residence rather than citizenship, meaning U.S. tax would generally apply only to U.S.-source income and gains—not worldwide income.

Important note: the bill hasn’t been brought to a vote and currently remains stalled in Congress. It’s a draft proposal that could be reintroduced or revised in future sessions, but it's not yet law and might never be.

Still, the fact that such legislation has real language and a sponsor on Capitol Hill is meaningful. It’s the most concrete residence-based taxation effort yet, and it shows that the conversation has moved past theory and into actual policy proposals.

Other reforms occasionally discussed—like easing FATCA requirements, PFIC reporting simplifications, or inflation-adjusted thresholds—could also help expats over time. But for now, none of those are guaranteed.

Will anything change in the next four years? I would love to say yes—because it would make life easier for millions of Americans abroad. Until then, the best strategy remains staying compliant and working with knowledgeable advisors who understand how complex U.S. expat tax rules intersect with your life in Germany. Our team at Wanderlust Tariff can help you get started.